{"F": {"ts_code": "001914.SZ", "name": "招商积余", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产服务", "sw3": "物业管理", "ind": "房地产服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.18, "pe_ttm": 14.7603, "pb": 0.8836, "dv_ttm": 2.8322, "total_mv": 967314.8682, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.6, 13.8, 11.8, 11.6, 12.0, 11.1], "rev_series": [86.4, 105.9, 130.2, 156.3, 171.7, 192.7], "np_series": [4.4, 5.1, 5.9, 7.4, 8.4, 6.5], "roe_series": [5.3, 6.0, 6.7, 7.8, 8.3, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 199.4, "np_ttm": 6.8, "ocf_ttm": 13.0, "fcf_ttm": 12.7, "fcf_yield": 13.2, "ocf_yield": 13.4, "gm_median": 11.8, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.7, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 15.5, "pb_calc": 0.88, "capex_dep": 0.6, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 46.1, "debt_mv": 6.4, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.0, "np_cagr3": 3.3, "rev_yoy": 6.6, "np_yoy": 0.2, "np_vol": 16.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.8, "consensus_n": 19, "fwd_pe": 10.1, "fwd_pe2": 9.3, "fwd_g1": 46.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.12, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 21.0], ["物业管理", 20.0], ["物业管理：基础物业管理", 16.0], ["非住宅", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.5, "ret_prev2_year": -10.8, "ret_ytd": -11.9, "ret_pivot": 7.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": 0.5, "ret_120": -12.6, "ret_250": -28.0, "mdd_250": -37.3, "vol_250": 27.7, "pos_52w": 72.9}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 44, "hard": 4, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 14.8 倍、股息率 2.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%、固定资产占比 3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.2%(经营现金流/市值 13.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 0.60 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.8 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 0% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产服务」12 家中位:PE 38.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 14.2% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 37%。", "招商积余:PE 比行业中位低 23.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点。"]}}