{"F": {"ts_code": "001896.SZ", "name": "豫能控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.54, "pe_ttm": 49.9336, "pb": 4.8724, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1760751.6202, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.6, -11.7, -10.2, 2.7, 7.1, 13.7], "rev_series": [86.8, 119.1, 131.0, 119.8, 121.6, 112.3], "np_series": [2.9, -20.3, -21.4, -5.5, -1.2, 3.9], "roe_series": [4.9, -36.4, -48.6, -15.9, -3.8, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 108.3, "np_ttm": 3.5, "ocf_ttm": 24.3, "fcf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 13.8, "gm_median": 2.7, "gm_std": 9.8, "gm_stab": -2.65, "gm_chg_2022": -23.8, "npm_median": -5.0, "roe_median": -15.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 69.9, "fix_assets": 230.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.87, "capex_dep": 1.48, "interest_debt": 246.4, "debt_ebitda": 10.1, "debt_ratio": 86.7, "debt_mv": 139.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -5.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -7.6, "np_yoy": -36.6, "np_vol": 301.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["火力发电及热力生产和供应", 30.0], ["火力发电及供热", 30.0], ["燃煤", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.3, "ret_prev2_year": -5.0, "ret_ytd": 121.9, "ret_pivot": 229.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.9, "ret_60": -45.6, "ret_120": -25.3, "ret_250": 101.7, "mdd_250": -49.2, "vol_250": 73.6, "pos_52w": 50.8}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 5, "hard": 100, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 3.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 50 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 87%,有息负债 246 亿,经营现金流/市值 13.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 70%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 2.7%,稳定度 -265%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 13.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.7%,稳定度 -265%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -23.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 70%,资本开支/折旧 1.48 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.9 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 102%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -46% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "豫能控股:PE 比行业中位高 22.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点。"]}}