{"F": {"ts_code": "001872.SZ", "name": "招商港口", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "港口", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930505", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.77, "pe_ttm": 12.38, "pb": 0.9038, "dv_ttm": 3.3614, "total_mv": 5900066.5091, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.6, 40.8, 40.5, 40.8, 43.0, 44.0], "rev_series": [126.2, 152.8, 162.3, 157.5, 161.3, 172.5], "np_series": [20.7, 26.9, 33.4, 35.7, 45.2, 46.1], "roe_series": [5.7, 7.0, 7.1, 6.3, 7.5, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 177.3, "np_ttm": 47.7, "ocf_ttm": 85.1, "fcf_ttm": 66.6, "fcf_yield": 11.3, "ocf_yield": 14.4, "gm_median": 40.8, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 50.7, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.1, "fix_assets": 334.1, "goodwill_ratio": 3.0, "pb_calc": 0.9, "capex_dep": 0.88, "interest_debt": 523.8, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 35.9, "debt_mv": 88.8, "payout": 41.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.0, "np_cagr3": 11.4, "rev_yoy": 5.7, "np_yoy": 5.9, "np_vol": 11.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 60.0, "earn_yield": 8.1, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 12.1, "fwd_pe2": 11.5, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 2.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["码头业务", 32.0], ["港口业务", 32.0], ["保税物流业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.1, "ret_prev2_year": 36.8, "ret_ytd": 28.3, "ret_pivot": 36.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.7, "ret_60": 23.5, "ret_120": 10.9, "ret_250": 18.5, "mdd_250": -18.1, "vol_250": 27.3, "pos_52w": 96.7}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 64, "hard": 26, "bondness": 68}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 41%、股息率 3.4%、营收 3 年复合 2.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.8%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.3%(经营现金流/市值 14.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.8%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.88 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.4 倍 粗算,约 60%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -18%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 97%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 24% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "招商港口:PE 比行业中位低 4.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 31.0个百分点。"]}}