{"F": {"ts_code": "001399.SZ", "name": "惠科股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20260626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.62, "pe_ttm": 45.7958, "pb": 4.6571, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 16014587.3564, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.5, 37.6, -0.6, 17.0, 18.5, 19.2], "rev_series": [null, null, 269.6, 358.2, 402.8, 409.0], "np_series": [null, null, -14.2, 25.8, 33.2, 38.0], "roe_series": [16.6, 62.9, -12.9, 21.3, 18.7, 16.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 424.2, "np_ttm": 35.0, "ocf_ttm": 103.6, "fcf_ttm": 36.5, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 18.5, "gm_std": 12.1, "gm_stab": 0.35, "gm_chg_2022": -18.0, "npm_median": 9.1, "roe_median": 18.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.3, "fix_assets": 505.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.66, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 508.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 61.4, "debt_mv": 31.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 14.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 8.0, "np_yoy": -14.1, "np_vol": 479.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["半导体显示面板", 37.0], ["智能显示终端", 12.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.0, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -53.8, "vol_250": 102.1, "pos_52w": 46.2}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 25, "hard": 66, "bondness": 19}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -18.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 35%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 35%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -18.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.8 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "惠科股份:PE 比行业中位低 15.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.9个百分点。"]}}