{"F": {"ts_code": "001391.SZ", "name": "国货航", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "跨境物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20241230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.1, "pe_ttm": 22.1272, "pb": 1.8753, "dv_ttm": 2.122, "total_mv": 5005641.292, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.3, 25.8, 20.2, 12.7, 15.7, 17.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 230.8, 149.2, 205.8, 228.8], "np_series": [null, null, 31.1, 11.5, 19.5, 25.8], "roe_series": [41.8, 32.3, 16.9, 6.0, 8.8, 10.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 244.8, "np_ttm": 22.6, "ocf_ttm": 41.7, "fcf_ttm": 6.8, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 8.3, "gm_median": 17.1, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 11.3, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 65.0, "fix_assets": 204.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.88, "capex_dep": 1.8, "interest_debt": 4.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 15.3, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 38.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -0.3, "np_cagr3": -6.0, "rev_yoy": 14.7, "np_yoy": -26.0, "np_vol": 47.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 30.0], ["航空货运", 20.0], ["货机", 10.0], ["航空货运：货机", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -35.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -29.7, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.6, "ret_60": -9.9, "ret_120": -27.0, "ret_250": -40.2, "mdd_250": -42.0, "vol_250": 18.5, "pos_52w": 59.7}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 38, "hard": 100, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.1 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%、固定资产占比 65%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 65%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 74%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 8.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 65%,资本开支/折旧 1.80 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.1 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 18%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -10% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "国货航:PE 比行业中位高 0.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 47.4个百分点。"]}}