{"F": {"ts_code": "001390.SZ", "name": "古麒绒材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "其他纺织", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250529", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.19, "pe_ttm": 19.8864, "pb": 2.0512, "dv_ttm": 0.7525, "total_mv": 343800.1719, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.6, 20.2, 23.2, 22.1, 25.8, 24.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 6.7, 8.3, 9.7, 10.5], "np_series": [null, null, 1.0, 1.2, 1.7, 1.8], "roe_series": [13.6, 15.7, 16.9, 17.8, 20.3, 14.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.8, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 23.2, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 4.6, "npm_median": 14.7, "roe_median": 16.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.2, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.05, "capex_dep": 9.82, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 28.9, "debt_mv": 8.4, "payout": 13.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 16.4, "np_cagr3": 22.5, "rev_yoy": 5.1, "np_yoy": -5.5, "np_vol": 12.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["鸭绒产品", 68.0], ["鹅绒产品", 31.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -29.3, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": 1.2, "ret_120": -24.2, "ret_250": -32.2, "mdd_250": -49.6, "vol_250": 36.3, "pos_52w": 52.4}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 54, "hard": 20, "bondness": 17}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.9 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 9.82 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.9 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 1% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "古麒绒材:PE 比行业中位低 3.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.9个百分点。"]}}