{"F": {"ts_code": "001388.SZ", "name": "信通电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250701", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.02, "pe_ttm": 48.6689, "pb": 3.2529, "dv_ttm": 3.5121, "total_mv": 491376.132, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.5, 38.2, 37.2, 33.0, 33.0, 32.9], "rev_series": [null, null, 7.8, 9.3, 10.1, 10.5], "np_series": [null, null, 1.2, 1.2, 1.4, 1.4], "roe_series": [21.9, 24.8, 22.3, 19.1, 18.3, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.2, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 33.0, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 14.2, "roe_median": 19.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.9, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.25, "capex_dep": 0.74, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 28.6, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 110.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 10.4, "np_cagr3": 5.3, "rev_yoy": -8.2, "np_yoy": -71.4, "np_vol": 14.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["输电线路智能巡检系统", 62.0], ["智能变电站辅助控制系统", 9.0], ["变电站智能辅控系统", 9.0], ["移动物联网智能终端类", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -26.7, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.6, "ret_60": 10.7, "ret_120": -30.4, "ret_250": -34.3, "mdd_250": -51.5, "vol_250": 48.0, "pos_52w": 60.0}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 55, "hard": 11, "bondness": 66}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 110%、股息率 3.5%、营收 3 年复合 10.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.0%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.74 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.7 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 11% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "信通电子:PE 比行业中位高 5.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点。"]}}