{"F": {"ts_code": "001386.SZ", "name": "马可波罗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "瓷砖地板", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20251022", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.02, "pe_ttm": 19.3964, "pb": 1.5778, "dv_ttm": 3.7453, "total_mv": 1914261.84, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.8, 43.1, 35.1, 36.0, 38.5, 39.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 86.6, 89.2, 73.2, 64.6], "np_series": [null, null, 15.1, 13.5, 13.3, 12.1], "roe_series": [50.0, 33.8, 23.0, 17.5, 14.8, 11.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.9, "np_ttm": 9.9, "ocf_ttm": 15.0, "fcf_ttm": 13.3, "fcf_yield": 7.0, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 38.5, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -8.7, "npm_median": 17.7, "roe_median": 17.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.7, "fix_assets": 25.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.58, "capex_dep": 0.48, "interest_debt": 10.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 24.9, "debt_mv": 5.3, "payout": 54.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -9.3, "np_cagr3": -7.2, "rev_yoy": -14.5, "np_yoy": -34.1, "np_vol": 9.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["有釉砖", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["无釉砖", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -28.6, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.0, "ret_60": 3.8, "ret_120": -27.8, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -54.8, "vol_250": 38.9, "pos_52w": 51.9}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 56, "hard": 25, "bondness": 63}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 54%、股息率 3.7%、营收 3 年复合 -9.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.5%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.48 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.4 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "马可波罗:PE 比行业中位低 8.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.9个百分点。"]}}