{"F": {"ts_code": "001382.SZ", "name": "新亚电缆", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250321", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.23, "pe_ttm": 79.0091, "pb": 4.3603, "dv_ttm": 0.4353, "total_mv": 709876.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.5, 9.2, 9.8, 11.7, 9.9, 9.5], "rev_series": [null, 28.9, 27.6, 30.1, 28.3, 29.5], "np_series": [null, 1.0, 1.1, 1.6, 1.3, 1.0], "roe_series": [15.6, 12.8, 12.9, 16.5, 11.7, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.9, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 9.8, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 12.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.4, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.36, "capex_dep": 7.21, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 23.9, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": 46.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": -3.2, "rev_yoy": 2.7, "np_yoy": -19.1, "np_vol": 27.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电力电缆", 25.0], ["架空导线", 15.0], ["电气装备用电线电缆", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -15.6, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.5, "ret_60": -15.6, "ret_120": -22.6, "ret_250": -20.9, "mdd_250": -41.3, "vol_250": 34.6, "pos_52w": 68.8}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 41, "hard": 7, "bondness": 42}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 79.0 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 7.21 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 79.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -16% / -23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "新亚电缆:PE 比行业中位高 35.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.5个百分点。"]}}