{"F": {"ts_code": "001380.SZ", "name": "华纬科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230516", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.95, "pe_ttm": 18.3567, "pb": 2.4052, "dv_ttm": 0.5571, "total_mv": 486183.289, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.4, 21.7, 23.9, 27.4, 25.7, 26.6], "rev_series": [5.3, 7.2, 8.9, 12.4, 18.6, 19.9], "np_series": [0.7, 0.6, 1.1, 1.6, 2.3, 2.8], "roe_series": [18.1, 13.8, 21.8, 15.8, 14.1, 15.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.6, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 25.7, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 15.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.2, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.41, "capex_dep": 6.91, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 29.4, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 24.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 30.8, "np_cagr3": 34.6, "rev_yoy": 6.9, "np_yoy": -8.1, "np_vol": 31.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 16.4, "fwd_pe2": 14.1, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["悬架系统零部件", 35.0], ["阀类及异形零部件", 10.0], ["制动系统零部件", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 57.2, "ret_prev2_year": -10.2, "ret_ytd": -21.2, "ret_pivot": 89.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.9, "ret_60": 11.7, "ret_120": -18.2, "ret_250": -26.4, "mdd_250": -48.6, "vol_250": 36.7, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 49, "hard": 37, "bondness": 12}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 18.4 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 6.91 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.4 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 12% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "华纬科技:PE 比行业中位低 11.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点。"]}}