{"F": {"ts_code": "001379.SZ", "name": "腾达科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20240119", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.12, "pe_ttm": 54.8188, "pb": 2.1412, "dv_ttm": 1.2407, "total_mv": 322400.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.1, 10.1, 13.2, 10.8, 8.2, 8.3], "rev_series": [null, null, 21.9, 17.3, 18.1, 20.0], "np_series": [null, null, 1.3, 0.9, 0.8, 0.7], "roe_series": [13.1, 23.5, 25.6, 14.0, 7.3, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.7, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 10.1, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 3.0, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 14.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.0, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 1.96, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 41.5, "debt_mv": 3.1, "payout": 39.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": -18.9, "rev_yoy": 6.8, "np_yoy": -33.2, "np_vol": 49.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["螺栓", 51.0], ["螺母", 16.0], ["螺杆钻具", 7.0], ["螺杆", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.0, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -31.3, "ret_pivot": -25.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": -4.9, "ret_120": -29.5, "ret_250": -28.4, "mdd_250": -45.1, "vol_250": 39.3, "pos_52w": 62.8}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 44, "hard": 32, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 54.8 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 10.1%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.1%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.96 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.8 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -5% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "腾达科技:PE 比行业中位高 4.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点。"]}}