{"F": {"ts_code": "001369.SZ", "name": "双欣材料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "其他化学纤维", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20251230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.5, "pe_ttm": 27.1475, "pb": 2.0375, "dv_ttm": 1.2, "total_mv": 1433750.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.2, 28.3, 24.9, 21.8, 22.2, 22.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 50.6, 37.8, 34.9, 35.8], "np_series": [null, null, 8.1, 5.6, 5.2, 5.4], "roe_series": [22.0, 33.9, 26.1, 14.7, 12.1, 9.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.3, "np_ttm": 5.3, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 22.7, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 2.8, "npm_median": 15.0, "roe_median": 14.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.8, "fix_assets": 42.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.04, "capex_dep": 2.2, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 16.2, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": 24.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -10.9, "np_cagr3": -12.8, "rev_yoy": 19.1, "np_yoy": -2.9, "np_vol": 46.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["电石", 12.0], ["聚乙烯醇", 11.0], ["聚合环保助剂", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -23.6, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": -15.3, "ret_120": -31.1, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -41.3, "vol_250": 50.0, "pos_52w": 64.0}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 52, "hard": 80, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 27.1 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.7%、固定资产占比 50%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.7%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.7%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 2.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.1 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "双欣材料:PE 比行业中位低 5.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点。"]}}