{"F": {"ts_code": "001368.SZ", "name": "通达创智", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "娱乐用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230313", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.88, "pe_ttm": 26.8135, "pb": 1.906, "dv_ttm": 3.1606, "total_mv": 270131.0376, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.2, 24.8, 25.1, 27.3, 26.2, 24.5], "rev_series": [6.9, 9.5, 9.3, 8.0, 9.7, 10.6], "np_series": [0.9, 1.3, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0], "roe_series": [20.1, 24.6, 20.6, 9.6, 7.4, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.2, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 25.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.8, "fix_assets": 5.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.91, "capex_dep": 1.94, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 21.5, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 86.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.3, "np_cagr3": -9.3, "rev_yoy": 11.7, "np_yoy": 4.5, "np_vol": 22.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["家居生活", 49.0], ["体育户外", 43.0], ["健康护理", 2.0], ["模具", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.0, "ret_prev2_year": -21.0, "ret_ytd": -2.3, "ret_pivot": 53.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.4, "ret_60": 4.1, "ret_120": -8.4, "ret_250": -8.6, "mdd_250": -42.3, "vol_250": 38.5, "pos_52w": 72.7}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 53, "hard": 48, "bondness": 65}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 86%、股息率 3.2%、营收 3 年复合 4.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 1.94 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.8 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 4% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "通达创智:PE 比行业中位低 20.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点。"]}}