{"F": {"ts_code": "001366.SZ", "name": "播恩集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "饲料", "sw3": "畜禽饲料", "ind": "饲料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230307", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.36, "pe_ttm": 457.4238, "pb": 2.8636, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 230736.48, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.6, 15.7, 12.9, 14.2, 13.8, 12.5], "rev_series": [15.1, 17.7, 17.1, 14.4, 10.2, 13.6], "np_series": [0.9, 0.9, 0.8, 0.5, -0.3, -0.2], "roe_series": [27.7, 22.2, 16.0, 7.1, -3.4, -2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.2, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -6.0, "ocf_yield": -3.1, "gm_median": 13.8, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.7, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.4, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.86, "capex_dep": 1.74, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": 7.8, "debt_ratio": 38.1, "debt_mv": 16.0, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -7.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": 169.5, "np_vol": 65.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["饲料销售", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.7, "ret_prev2_year": -36.0, "ret_ytd": 7.4, "ret_pivot": 48.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 24.2, "ret_60": 11.9, "ret_120": -8.9, "ret_250": 8.7, "mdd_250": -45.8, "vol_250": 46.1, "pos_52w": 77.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 57, "bondness": 48}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 35%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.8%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.0%(经营现金流/市值 -3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 1.74 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 457.4 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 12% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饲料」19 家中位:PE 44.7 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 9.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 40%。", "播恩集团:PE 比行业中位高 412.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}