{"F": {"ts_code": "001358.SZ", "name": "兴欣新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20231221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.89, "pe_ttm": 56.0899, "pb": 2.0384, "dv_ttm": 1.0465, "total_mv": 294324.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 38.1, 40.7, 34.6, 31.3, 27.9], "rev_series": [null, null, 7.7, 6.3, 4.7, 4.7], "np_series": [null, null, 2.1, 1.4, 0.8, 0.5], "roe_series": [19.8, 36.8, 45.4, 13.6, 5.5, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 34.6, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 10.9, "npm_median": 22.5, "roe_median": 13.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.6, "fix_assets": 4.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.04, "capex_dep": 2.49, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 7.7, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 64.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -15.1, "np_cagr3": -38.6, "rev_yoy": 6.9, "np_yoy": 12.4, "np_vol": 70.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["哌嗪系列产品", 25.0], ["哌嗪系列", 25.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.7, "ret_prev2_year": -34.1, "ret_ytd": -6.5, "ret_pivot": 31.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.1, "ret_60": -0.5, "ret_120": -19.0, "ret_250": -4.6, "mdd_250": -38.4, "vol_250": 47.0, "pos_52w": 74.8}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 59, "hard": 46, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 56.1 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.6%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.6%),硬资产占比 29%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.6%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 2.49 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.1 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -0% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "兴欣新材:PE 比行业中位高 20.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点。"]}}