{"F": {"ts_code": "001338.SZ", "name": "永顺泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "其他农产品加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20221116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.22, "pe_ttm": 38.8471, "pb": 1.2721, "dv_ttm": 2.603, "total_mv": 462595.7976, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.9, 9.9, 9.2, 8.4, 11.9, 12.1], "rev_series": [28.3, 30.2, 41.9, 48.4, 42.8, 39.3], "np_series": [1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, 3.0, 2.4], "roe_series": [6.4, 6.8, 5.7, 5.3, 8.6, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.2, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 6.2, "fcf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_yield": 10.7, "ocf_yield": 13.5, "gm_median": 9.9, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.8, "fix_assets": 12.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.27, "capex_dep": 1.53, "interest_debt": 7.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 21.1, "debt_mv": 16.0, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.2, "np_cagr3": 14.9, "rev_yoy": -13.9, "np_yoy": -69.6, "np_vol": 30.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 18.1, "fwd_pe2": 15.4, "fwd_g1": 115.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["麦芽销售", 32.0], ["销售麦芽产品", 32.0], ["销售副产品及原材料", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.8, "ret_prev2_year": -9.4, "ret_ytd": -22.3, "ret_pivot": 9.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.6, "ret_60": -4.2, "ret_120": -31.8, "ret_250": -22.8, "mdd_250": -39.9, "vol_250": 30.5, "pos_52w": 68.2}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 42, "hard": 43, "bondness": 63}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.8 倍、股息率 2.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 9.9%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.7%(经营现金流/市值 13.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.9%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.53 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.8 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -4% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "永顺泰:PE 比行业中位低 0.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点。"]}}