{"F": {"ts_code": "001337.SZ", "name": "四川黄金", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "贵金属", "sw3": "黄金", "ind": "贵金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 53.2, "pe_ttm": 32.3933, "pb": 10.855, "dv_ttm": 0.9398, "total_mv": 2234400.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.0, 45.5, 51.3, 51.2, 56.6, 62.8], "rev_series": [5.4, 5.3, 4.7, 6.3, 6.4, 10.3], "np_series": [2.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.1, 2.5, 4.7], "roe_series": [43.7, 27.2, 26.8, 19.2, 17.6, 28.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.1, "np_ttm": 6.9, "ocf_ttm": 9.0, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 51.3, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": 38.8, "roe_median": 26.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 26.7, "fix_assets": 9.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.85, "capex_dep": 7.78, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 38.8, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 49.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 29.5, "np_cagr3": 32.8, "rev_yoy": 87.0, "np_yoy": 107.3, "np_vol": 36.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["金精矿", 100.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.9, "ret_prev2_year": -24.1, "ret_ytd": 94.4, "ret_pivot": 152.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.4, "ret_60": 31.6, "ret_120": -0.1, "ret_250": 128.0, "mdd_250": -55.5, "vol_250": 67.4, "pos_52w": 72.8}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 70, "hard": 43, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.4 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 51.3%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.3%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.3%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 7.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.4 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 128%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 32% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贵金属」11 家中位:PE 30.8 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 13.3% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 32%。", "四川黄金:PE 比行业中位高 1.6倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 38.0个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}