{"F": {"ts_code": "001335.SZ", "name": "信凯科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "涂料油墨", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250415", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.75, "pe_ttm": 39.1964, "pb": 3.0452, "dv_ttm": 0.458, "total_mv": 306996.8625, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.2, 15.9, 15.4, 16.1, 14.3, 15.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 11.9, 10.7, 14.2, 13.1], "np_series": [null, null, 0.9, 0.9, 1.1, 0.8], "roe_series": [31.8, 31.1, 21.7, 17.5, 18.3, 9.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.1, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 15.4, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 7.4, "roe_median": 18.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.8, "fix_assets": 6.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.05, "capex_dep": 3.39, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 47.6, "debt_mv": 11.4, "payout": 13.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 3.3, "np_cagr3": -3.9, "rev_yoy": 13.2, "np_yoy": 0.9, "np_vol": 25.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["偶氮颜料", 54.0], ["杂环颜料", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 6.0], ["其他主营", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -33.4, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.6, "ret_60": -30.1, "ret_120": -27.9, "ret_250": -17.1, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 43.9, "pos_52w": 57.9}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 49, "hard": 48, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 39.2 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 3.39 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.2 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -30% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "信凯科技:PE 比行业中位高 3.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点。"]}}