{"F": {"ts_code": "001325.SZ", "name": "元创股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "其他橡胶制品", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20251218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.49, "pe_ttm": 22.7323, "pb": 1.7116, "dv_ttm": 1.5447, "total_mv": 309601.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.5, 18.4, 18.8, 25.7, 20.0, 20.2], "rev_series": [null, null, 12.6, 11.4, 13.5, 14.3], "np_series": [null, null, 1.4, 1.8, 1.5, 1.6], "roe_series": [21.7, 13.1, 16.9, 18.2, 13.5, 10.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.9, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 4.1, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 20.0, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -9.6, "npm_median": 11.0, "roe_median": 13.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.5, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.71, "capex_dep": 0.43, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 25.0, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 22.8, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 4.3, "np_cagr3": 4.3, "rev_yoy": 8.6, "np_yoy": -29.1, "np_vol": 27.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["农用带", 19.0], ["农用履带", 19.0], ["工程带", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -18.7, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.3, "ret_60": 6.7, "ret_120": -28.7, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -50.3, "vol_250": 41.2, "pos_52w": 59.3}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 44, "hard": 39, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.7 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 0.43 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.7 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "元创股份:PE 比行业中位低 6.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点。"]}}