{"F": {"ts_code": "001323.SZ", "name": "慕思股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "成品家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220623", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.09, "pe_ttm": 22.8595, "pb": 1.9619, "dv_ttm": 7.5541, "total_mv": 830569.0563, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.3, 45.0, 46.5, 50.3, 50.1, 51.3], "rev_series": [44.5, 64.8, 58.1, 55.8, 56.0, 52.3], "np_series": [5.4, 6.9, 7.1, 8.0, 7.7, 5.4], "roe_series": [36.7, 30.9, 20.5, 17.8, 16.8, 12.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.4, "np_ttm": 3.6, "ocf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 50.1, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 12.2, "roe_median": 17.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.7, "fix_assets": 22.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.96, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 13.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 41.0, "debt_mv": 16.3, "payout": 49.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -3.5, "np_cagr3": -8.9, "rev_yoy": 0.6, "np_yoy": -48.1, "np_vol": 19.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 16.7, "fwd_pe2": 14.8, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["民用家具-床垫", 20.0], ["床垫", 20.0], ["床架", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -22.0, "ret_prev2_year": 34.6, "ret_ytd": -23.5, "ret_pivot": -16.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.0, "ret_60": 3.7, "ret_120": -24.8, "ret_250": -33.6, "mdd_250": -46.5, "vol_250": 32.9, "pos_52w": 66.4}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 64, "hard": 51, "bondness": 73}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 23 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 50.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 2.4%,股息率 7.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 78%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 50.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.9 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 4% / -25%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "慕思股份:PE 比行业中位低 5.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 21.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}