{"F": {"ts_code": "001322.SZ", "name": "箭牌家居", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "卫浴制品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20221026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3517, "dv_ttm": 0.6051, "total_mv": 626682.7072, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.5, 30.1, 32.8, 28.3, 25.2, 26.0], "rev_series": [65.0, 83.7, 75.1, 76.5, 71.3, 64.7], "np_series": [5.9, 5.8, 5.9, 4.2, 0.7, 0.5], "roe_series": [29.6, 21.6, 15.4, 8.7, 1.4, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.1, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 28.3, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.6, "fix_assets": 49.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.35, "capex_dep": 0.55, "interest_debt": 21.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 50.1, "debt_mv": 33.7, "payout": 80.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.8, "np_cagr3": -57.4, "rev_yoy": -9.2, "np_yoy": -314.6, "np_vol": 31.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 53.4, "fwd_pe2": 32.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 65.0, "peg": 0.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["卫生陶瓷", 23.0], ["龙头五金", 16.0], ["浴室家具", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.5, "ret_prev2_year": -31.5, "ret_ytd": -26.5, "ret_pivot": -9.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.3, "ret_60": 2.0, "ret_120": -24.0, "ret_250": -28.8, "mdd_250": -39.5, "vol_250": 29.1, "pos_52w": 68.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 86, "bondness": 65}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 21 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 6.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 0.55 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 2% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "箭牌家居:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.0个百分点。"]}}