{"F": {"ts_code": "001318.SZ", "name": "阳光乳业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.77, "pe_ttm": 36.5495, "pb": 2.3097, "dv_ttm": 1.9541, "total_mv": 332690.82, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.0, 38.5, 34.4, 36.4, 37.9, 39.5], "rev_series": [5.2, 6.3, 5.7, 5.7, 5.2, 4.8], "np_series": [1.0, 1.4, 1.1, 1.2, 1.1, 1.0], "roe_series": [19.0, 24.3, 12.2, 8.9, 8.4, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 37.9, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 21.3, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.31, "capex_dep": 0.99, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 4.0, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 44.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.7, "np_cagr3": -2.0, "rev_yoy": -8.1, "np_yoy": -22.5, "np_vol": 16.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["乳制品", 50.0], ["低温乳制品", 39.0], ["常温乳制品", 7.0], ["常温乳饮料", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.1, "ret_prev2_year": -23.2, "ret_ytd": -23.3, "ret_pivot": 27.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.1, "ret_60": 9.8, "ret_120": -16.5, "ret_250": -20.9, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 36.8, "pos_52w": 67.9}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 58, "hard": 21, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 36.5 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.9%、固定资产占比 13%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.9%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.99 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.5 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 10% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "阳光乳业:PE 比行业中位高 7.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.3个百分点。"]}}