{"F": {"ts_code": "001317.SZ", "name": "三羊马", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "铁路运输", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20211130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 53.84, "pe_ttm": 683.3564, "pb": 4.5252, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 460686.2672, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.6, 11.4, 7.5, 7.2, 7.5, 7.7], "rev_series": [8.7, 9.2, 8.0, 9.8, 11.8, 12.2], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1, -0.1], "roe_series": [13.6, 7.3, 2.0, 2.4, 1.0, -0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.9, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 7.5, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -6.1, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.3, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.53, "capex_dep": 0.17, "interest_debt": 3.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 41.1, "debt_mv": 8.5, "payout": 69.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 15.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -22.2, "np_yoy": 117.5, "np_vol": 75.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["综合物流服务", 44.0], ["汽车整车综合物流服务", 44.0], ["非汽车商品综合物流服务", 9.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 99.2, "ret_prev2_year": -21.9, "ret_ytd": -2.3, "ret_pivot": 147.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": 3.0, "ret_120": 18.6, "ret_250": 4.5, "mdd_250": -35.5, "vol_250": 53.9, "pos_52w": 89.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 52, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 683.4 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 7.5%、固定资产占比 32%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.5%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.5%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 683.4 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 3% / 19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "三羊马:PE 比行业中位高 668.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 24.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点。"]}}