{"F": {"ts_code": "001316.SZ", "name": "润贝航科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "油品石化贸易", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220624", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.18, "pe_ttm": 22.2602, "pb": 3.5832, "dv_ttm": 2.1916, "total_mv": 486385.7088, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.8, 31.6, 28.3, 24.4, 28.0, 29.1], "rev_series": [7.2, 7.0, 5.6, 8.3, 9.1, 12.2], "np_series": [0.7, 1.3, 0.8, 0.9, 0.9, 1.8], "roe_series": [18.0, 31.3, 10.4, 8.4, 7.6, 14.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.2, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_yield": 4.7, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 28.3, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 14.1, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.7, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.58, "capex_dep": 2.77, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 14.8, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 48.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 29.4, "np_cagr3": 32.4, "rev_yoy": 22.0, "np_yoy": 44.8, "np_vol": 56.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 15.6, "fwd_pe2": 12.2, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["分销产品", 90.0], ["自研产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 101.0, "ret_prev2_year": -16.1, "ret_ytd": 9.6, "ret_pivot": 155.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.9, "ret_60": -17.2, "ret_120": -10.5, "ret_250": 18.7, "mdd_250": -45.5, "vol_250": 55.6, "pos_52w": 68.4}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 52, "hard": 9, "bondness": 31}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 45%,PE TTM 22.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 15.6 倍,PEG 0.56。", "自由现金流 2.3 亿(正),次年预期增速 28%(6 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 2.77 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.3 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / -17% / -10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "润贝航科:PE 比行业中位低 1.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 37.4个百分点。"]}}