{"F": {"ts_code": "001311.SZ", "name": "多利科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230227", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.23, "pe_ttm": 28.3246, "pb": 1.4518, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 695509.7983, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.2, 24.7, 24.5, 23.2, 21.1, 14.0], "rev_series": [16.8, 27.7, 33.6, 39.1, 35.9, 41.9], "np_series": [1.6, 3.9, 4.5, 5.0, 4.2, 2.3], "roe_series": [15.6, 31.5, 27.2, 16.2, 9.6, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.3, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_yield": -3.7, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 23.2, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 16.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.4, "fix_assets": 34.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": 3.04, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 37.7, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 33.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 7.7, "np_cagr3": -19.3, "rev_yoy": 42.3, "np_yoy": 7.1, "np_vol": 66.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["冲压和一体化压铸零部件", 95.0], ["其他业务", 3.0], ["冲压模具", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.0, "ret_prev2_year": -31.7, "ret_ytd": -30.2, "ret_pivot": 52.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": -6.4, "ret_120": -34.4, "ret_250": -3.7, "mdd_250": -58.6, "vol_250": 48.0, "pos_52w": 50.1}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 49, "hard": 69, "bondness": 24}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.3 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%、固定资产占比 43%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 3.04 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.3 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -6% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "多利科技:PE 比行业中位低 1.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.9个百分点。"]}}