{"F": {"ts_code": "001306.SZ", "name": "夏厦精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20231116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 54.84, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.7459, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 345094.41, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.7, 32.7, 30.9, 29.4, 22.2, 15.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 5.2, 5.3, 6.7, 7.7], "np_series": [null, null, 0.9, 0.7, 0.6, -0.2], "roe_series": [14.6, 24.9, 19.9, 8.0, 4.7, -1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.1, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_yield": -9.4, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 29.4, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 13.6, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.9, "fix_assets": 11.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.75, "capex_dep": 3.16, "interest_debt": 6.5, "debt_ebitda": 7.4, "debt_ratio": 46.1, "debt_mv": 18.9, "payout": 37.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 14.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.1, "np_yoy": -359.0, "np_vol": 74.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["汽车齿轮", 27.0], ["减速机及其他", 13.0], ["电动工具齿轮", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 58.8, "ret_prev2_year": -37.5, "ret_ytd": -38.4, "ret_pivot": 36.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.2, "ret_60": -8.6, "ret_120": -23.4, "ret_250": -47.1, "mdd_250": -58.6, "vol_250": 42.2, "pos_52w": 50.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 78, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.4%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.4%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 3.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -47%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -9% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "夏厦精密:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.1个百分点。"]}}