{"F": {"ts_code": "001299.SZ", "name": "美能能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20221031", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.7, "pe_ttm": 39.914, "pb": 3.2754, "dv_ttm": 4.2184, "total_mv": 367631.784, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.7, 27.1, 22.7, 19.1, 18.8, 21.2], "rev_series": [4.6, 4.8, 5.5, 5.8, 6.7, 7.3], "np_series": [1.0, 1.0, 0.9, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0], "roe_series": [18.2, 16.2, 9.9, 6.4, 6.7, 8.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.0, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 21.2, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 14.1, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.9, "fix_assets": 7.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.28, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 28.5, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 151.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 10.1, "np_cagr3": 3.2, "rev_yoy": -8.7, "np_yoy": -22.2, "np_vol": 11.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["天然气销售", 45.0], ["天然气设施设备安装", 3.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.1, "ret_prev2_year": -20.5, "ret_ytd": 7.0, "ret_pivot": 117.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.0, "ret_60": 14.5, "ret_120": 13.0, "ret_250": 28.0, "mdd_250": -34.6, "vol_250": 51.8, "pos_52w": 84.3}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 44, "hard": 72, "bondness": 73}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 11个百分点,营收 3 年复合 10.1%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 151%、股息率 4.2%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 28%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.2% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 39.9 倍 倒过来就是 2.5% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.9 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 28%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 14% / 13%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "美能能源:PE 比行业中位高 17.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点。"]}}