{"F": {"ts_code": "001288.SZ", "name": "运机集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20211101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.74, "pe_ttm": 41.9689, "pb": 2.9469, "dv_ttm": 0.6992, "total_mv": 671837.4486, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.1, 25.7, 25.0, 24.0, 29.3, 27.3], "rev_series": [6.9, 7.9, 9.1, 10.5, 15.4, 17.9], "np_series": [1.0, 0.9, 0.9, 1.0, 1.6, 2.0], "roe_series": [9.1, 5.8, 4.8, 5.2, 7.4, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.4, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -3.7, "fcf_yield": -5.4, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 25.7, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -6.1, "npm_median": 10.7, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.7, "fix_assets": 9.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 2.82, "capex_dep": 7.36, "interest_debt": 18.9, "debt_ebitda": 12.0, "debt_ratio": 59.0, "debt_mv": 28.2, "payout": 25.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 25.0, "np_cagr3": 31.4, "rev_yoy": -39.6, "np_yoy": -48.6, "np_vol": 23.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 17.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.8, "fwd_g1": 141.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 0.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["输送机设备整机", 22.0], ["输送机整机", 22.0], ["技术服务及备件", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 48.1, "ret_prev2_year": 87.2, "ret_ytd": -9.5, "ret_pivot": 70.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.4, "ret_60": 18.4, "ret_120": -12.4, "ret_250": 20.5, "mdd_250": -48.6, "vol_250": 52.3, "pos_52w": 70.7}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 49, "hard": 24, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 42.0 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 12.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 7.36 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.0 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 18% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "运机集团:PE 比行业中位低 0.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点。"]}}