{"F": {"ts_code": "001286.SZ", "name": "陕西能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230410", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.58, "pe_ttm": 11.8808, "pb": 1.3534, "dv_ttm": 4.2797, "total_mv": 3592500.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.7, 31.8, 39.0, 40.0, 35.0, 36.8], "rev_series": [97.1, 154.8, 202.9, 194.5, 231.6, 229.6], "np_series": [7.4, 4.0, 24.7, 25.6, 30.1, 30.1], "roe_series": [5.8, 3.1, 17.7, 13.4, 12.6, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 238.0, "np_ttm": 30.2, "ocf_ttm": 95.9, "fcf_ttm": 25.2, "fcf_yield": 7.0, "ocf_yield": 26.7, "gm_median": 36.8, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 4.3, "npm_median": 20.1, "roe_median": 12.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.0, "fix_assets": 532.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.35, "capex_dep": 2.46, "interest_debt": 301.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 55.5, "debt_mv": 83.9, "payout": 51.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": 6.8, "rev_yoy": 8.6, "np_yoy": 1.1, "np_vol": 208.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 58.0, "earn_yield": 8.4, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 11.2, "fwd_pe2": 10.3, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.24, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力业务", 29.0], ["电力", 29.0], ["煤炭业务", 19.0], ["煤炭", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.2, "ret_prev2_year": 14.8, "ret_ytd": 7.6, "ret_pivot": 12.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.5, "ret_60": -15.9, "ret_120": -10.8, "ret_250": 7.6, "mdd_250": -29.7, "vol_250": 30.5, "pos_52w": 71.8}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 61, "hard": 100, "bondness": 69}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 51%、股息率 4.3%、营收 3 年复合 4.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 70%、毛利率 36.8% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.0%(经营现金流/市值 26.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 70%,资本开支/折旧 2.46 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.9 倍 粗算,约 58%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -16% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "陕西能源:PE 比行业中位低 15.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点。"]}}