{"F": {"ts_code": "001283.SZ", "name": "豪鹏科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220905", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 49.74, "pe_ttm": 28.1306, "pb": 1.7774, "dv_ttm": 0.584, "total_mv": 645028.8174, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.5, 20.9, 21.1, 19.2, 18.2, 19.8], "rev_series": [26.2, 33.2, 35.1, 45.4, 51.1, 58.7], "np_series": [1.7, 2.5, 1.6, 0.5, 0.9, 2.0], "roe_series": [21.6, 24.8, 9.3, 2.1, 3.7, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.9, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -6.1, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 19.8, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -7.4, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.5, "fix_assets": 43.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.78, "capex_dep": 2.36, "interest_debt": 22.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 61.8, "debt_mv": 34.4, "payout": 41.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 18.7, "np_cagr3": 8.5, "rev_yoy": 15.2, "np_yoy": 27.1, "np_vol": 72.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 16.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.2, "fwd_g1": 72.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 0.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["消费类应用场景新能源解决方案产品", 42.0], ["储能类应用场景新能源解决方案产品", 7.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.1, "ret_prev2_year": 12.8, "ret_ytd": -7.1, "ret_pivot": 97.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.3, "ret_60": 6.0, "ret_120": 2.0, "ret_250": -18.1, "mdd_250": -41.5, "vol_250": 47.3, "pos_52w": 73.6}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 47, "hard": 73, "bondness": 29}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 2.36 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.1 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 17% / 6% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "豪鹏科技:PE 比行业中位低 7.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.7个百分点。"]}}