{"F": {"ts_code": "001280.SZ", "name": "中国铀业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "稀土", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20251203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 65.91, "pe_ttm": 72.9782, "pb": 7.8724, "dv_ttm": 0.3945, "total_mv": 13631386.2438, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20191231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, 24.4, 23.1, 18.7, 16.0, 19.8], "rev_series": [null, 89.1, 105.4, 148.0, 172.8, 198.9], "np_series": [null, 8.2, 13.3, 12.6, 14.6, 16.5], "roe_series": [null, 11.0, 16.4, 14.1, 14.7, 11.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 209.3, "np_ttm": 18.7, "ocf_ttm": 17.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 19.8, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 10.1, "roe_median": 14.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 45.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.87, "capex_dep": 3.8, "interest_debt": 79.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 45.2, "debt_mv": 5.8, "payout": 29.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 23.6, "np_cagr3": 7.3, "rev_yoy": 10.8, "np_yoy": 29.1, "np_vol": 24.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 54.0, "fwd_pe2": 35.1, "fwd_g1": 35.0, "fwd_g2": 54.0, "peg": 1.0, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["天然铀", 23.0], ["天然铀：外购天然铀产品", 16.0], ["外购天然铀产品销售", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 8.7, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": -5.5, "ret_120": -26.6, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -43.6, "vol_250": 51.8, "pos_52w": 65.7}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 70, "hard": 21, "bondness": 19}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 73.0 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 54.0 倍,次年 35.1 倍,PEG 1.00。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 19.8%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%,稳定度 85%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 3.80 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 73.0 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "中国铀业:PE 比行业中位高 36.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点。"]}}