{"F": {"ts_code": "001278.SZ", "name": "一彬科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230308", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.79, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.8767, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 207748.3786, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.6, 23.7, 21.0, 21.9, 20.1, 13.7], "rev_series": [13.2, 14.3, 18.6, 20.7, 21.8, 21.8], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 0.3, -0.7], "roe_series": [22.5, 17.5, 16.5, 10.1, 2.3, -5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.5, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_yield": -12.4, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 21.0, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.4, "fix_assets": 10.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.88, "capex_dep": 3.31, "interest_debt": 15.6, "debt_ebitda": 26.4, "debt_ratio": 74.3, "debt_mv": 75.3, "payout": 25.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.1, "np_yoy": -270.7, "np_vol": 135.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["塑料件", 36.0], ["金属件", 12.0], ["模具", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.8, "ret_prev2_year": -37.2, "ret_ytd": -13.2, "ret_pivot": 16.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.3, "ret_60": 0.1, "ret_120": -27.1, "ret_250": -11.6, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 44.6, "pos_52w": 64.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 39, "bondness": 39}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 74%,有息负债 16 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 3.31 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 0% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "一彬科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}