{"F": {"ts_code": "001270.SZ", "name": "铖昌科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 96.11, "pe_ttm": 144.8376, "pb": 12.5218, "dv_ttm": 0.2081, "total_mv": 1980970.3039, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [74.3, 77.0, 71.3, 62.3, 63.9, 72.7], "rev_series": [1.7, 2.1, 2.8, 2.9, 2.1, 4.0], "np_series": [0.5, 1.6, 1.3, 0.8, -0.3, 1.2], "roe_series": [12.2, 25.9, 12.9, 5.7, -2.2, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.2, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 71.3, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 28.9, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.6, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 12.52, "capex_dep": 0.53, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 5.5, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 37.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 13.4, "np_cagr3": -4.1, "rev_yoy": 7.3, "np_yoy": 34.7, "np_vol": 225.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["相控阵T/R芯片", 100.0]], "ret_prev_year": 141.3, "ret_prev2_year": -20.9, "ret_ytd": 5.1, "ret_pivot": 248.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -18.8, "ret_60": -25.7, "ret_120": -14.0, "ret_250": 114.7, "mdd_250": -47.1, "vol_250": 66.3, "pos_52w": 57.8}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 73, "hard": 25, "bondness": 21}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 144.8 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 71.3%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 71.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.53 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 144.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 115%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -19% / -26% / -14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "铖昌科技:PE 比行业中位高 65.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 31.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点。"]}}