{"F": {"ts_code": "001260.SZ", "name": "坤泰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.31, "pe_ttm": 93.2606, "pb": 2.597, "dv_ttm": 1.1742, "total_mv": 210565.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.3, 33.3, 29.6, 28.7, 26.6, 27.2], "rev_series": [3.8, 4.1, 4.5, 4.9, 6.0, 5.8], "np_series": [0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [27.5, 20.5, 16.3, 8.0, 6.2, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.5, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 5.2, "gm_median": 28.7, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -8.7, "npm_median": 9.8, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.2, "fix_assets": 4.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.6, "capex_dep": 0.95, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 20.9, "debt_mv": 2.1, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.6, "np_cagr3": -13.8, "rev_yoy": -10.5, "np_yoy": -84.5, "np_vol": 8.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["针刺地毯", 18.0], ["簇绒地毯", 16.0], ["汽车脚垫", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.1, "ret_prev2_year": -28.1, "ret_ytd": -8.0, "ret_pivot": 43.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.4, "ret_60": 2.7, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": -10.6, "mdd_250": -44.3, "vol_250": 46.0, "pos_52w": 70.3}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 50, "hard": 63, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 93.3 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%、固定资产占比 39%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.95 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 93.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 3% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "坤泰股份:PE 比行业中位高 63.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点。"]}}