{"F": {"ts_code": "001258.SZ", "name": "立新能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "风力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.29, "pe_ttm": 76.9066, "pb": 3.7123, "dv_ttm": 0.2441, "total_mv": 1147066.6257, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [61.8, 60.7, 59.5, 58.0, 48.9, 48.8], "rev_series": [6.5, 8.0, 8.8, 9.9, 9.7, 10.6], "np_series": [1.2, 1.4, 2.0, 1.4, 0.5, 0.9], "roe_series": [7.6, 7.9, 8.3, 4.7, 1.7, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.1, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 7.3, "fcf_ttm": -13.1, "fcf_yield": -11.4, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 58.0, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 13.7, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 73.3, "fix_assets": 136.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.71, "capex_dep": 4.22, "interest_debt": 101.7, "debt_ebitda": 13.2, "debt_ratio": 74.9, "debt_mv": 88.7, "payout": 34.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.3, "np_cagr3": -24.3, "rev_yoy": 29.8, "np_yoy": 715.8, "np_vol": 47.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["风力发电", 48.0], ["光伏发电", 28.0], ["购售电服务及其他", 24.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.5, "ret_prev2_year": -0.5, "ret_ytd": 73.6, "ret_pivot": 115.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": 57.8, "ret_120": 31.4, "ret_250": 70.5, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 62.6, "pos_52w": 77.2}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 67, "hard": 100, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 76.9 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 58.0%、固定资产占比 73%、有息负债/EBITDA 13.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 73%、毛利率 58.0% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.4%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 73%,资本开支/折旧 4.22 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.9 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 70%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 58% / 31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "立新能源:PE 比行业中位高 49.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 35.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.6个百分点。"]}}