{"F": {"ts_code": "001257.SZ", "name": "盛龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "钼", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20260331", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.01, "pe_ttm": 44.7332, "pb": 5.728, "dv_ttm": 0.6247, "total_mv": 4408117.8708, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.1, 59.8, 51.0, 48.2], "rev_series": [19.1, 19.6, 28.6, 35.0], "np_series": [3.4, 6.2, 7.6, 8.8], "roe_series": [19.5, 21.9, 17.6, 17.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.8, "np_ttm": 9.9, "ocf_ttm": 10.3, "fcf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 50.1, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 25.7, "roe_median": 18.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 31.0, "fix_assets": 30.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 5.73, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 22.0, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 27.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 22.4, "np_cagr3": 37.0, "rev_yoy": 7.7, "np_yoy": 16.8, "np_vol": 28.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钼精矿", 64.0], ["钼铁", 35.0], ["氧化钼", 1.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.9, "ret_60": -4.2, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -30.2, "vol_250": 67.5, "pos_52w": 71.3}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 70, "hard": 50, "bondness": 14}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 31 亿,占总资产 31%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:钼 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.0%,股息率 0.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 89%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 31%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.1%,稳定度 91%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.7 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "盛龙股份:PE 比行业中位高 7.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 31.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点。"]}}