{"F": {"ts_code": "001248.SZ", "name": "华润新能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "风力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20260702", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.08, "pe_ttm": 34.1475, "pb": 1.3936, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 16092508.3832, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.9, 61.0, 60.8, 56.3, 48.8], "rev_series": [null, 182.0, 205.1, 228.7, 229.1], "np_series": [null, 63.0, 82.8, 79.5, 61.0], "roe_series": [27.2, 13.6, 11.4, 9.8, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 225.3, "np_ttm": 47.1, "ocf_ttm": 221.9, "fcf_ttm": -74.2, "fcf_yield": -4.6, "ocf_yield": 13.8, "gm_median": 60.8, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 35.6, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 67.5, "fix_assets": 1780.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.39, "capex_dep": 3.13, "interest_debt": 1162.4, "debt_ebitda": 5.9, "debt_ratio": 54.9, "debt_mv": 72.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 8.0, "np_cagr3": -1.0, "rev_yoy": -2.9, "np_yoy": -29.5, "np_vol": 19.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["风力发电", 37.0], ["太阳能发电", 8.0], ["光伏发电", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.3, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -49.8, "vol_250": 69.6, "pos_52w": 50.4}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 27}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.1 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 60.8%、固定资产占比 68%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 68%、毛利率 60.8% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.6%(经营现金流/市值 13.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.8%,稳定度 92%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 68%,资本开支/折旧 3.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.1 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "华润新能源:PE 比行业中位高 6.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 38.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点。"]}}