{"F": {"ts_code": "001239.SZ", "name": "永达股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械器件", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20231212", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.1, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1393, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 290400.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.2, 22.2, 23.0, 23.1, 19.0, 12.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 8.3, 8.2, 8.5, 20.4], "np_series": [null, null, 0.9, 0.9, 0.8, 0.5], "roe_series": [22.5, 25.0, 20.7, 10.6, 6.3, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.8, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 4.6, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 22.2, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 3.8, "npm_median": 10.2, "roe_median": 10.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.7, "fix_assets": 6.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 0.6, "interest_debt": 12.6, "debt_ebitda": 8.0, "debt_ratio": 52.9, "debt_mv": 43.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 34.8, "np_cagr3": -20.1, "rev_yoy": 4.1, "np_yoy": -94.0, "np_vol": 27.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["金属锻件产品", 23.0], ["风电及工程机械设备锻件", 23.0], ["金属结构件产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.2, "ret_prev2_year": -38.4, "ret_ytd": -25.9, "ret_pivot": -13.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": -13.3, "ret_120": -24.5, "ret_250": -30.1, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 33.1, "pos_52w": 65.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 24, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 53%,有息负债 13 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.6%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.60 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -13% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "永达股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点。"]}}