{"F": {"ts_code": "001238.SZ", "name": "浙江正特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "娱乐用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.82, "pe_ttm": 189.1505, "pb": 3.2959, "dv_ttm": 0.2878, "total_mv": 385077.336, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.1, 20.2, 21.0, 24.3, 25.3, 25.3], "rev_series": [9.1, 12.4, 13.8, 10.9, 12.4, 16.8], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 0.6, 0.2, -0.1, 0.4], "roe_series": [15.6, 17.7, 6.7, 1.5, -1.3, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.4, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 5.0, "ocf_yield": 6.6, "gm_median": 24.3, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.0, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.3, "capex_dep": 1.0, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 38.4, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 38.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.7, "np_cagr3": -15.1, "rev_yoy": 25.6, "np_yoy": -22.5, "np_vol": 183.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 30.2, "fwd_pe2": 20.8, "fwd_g1": 527.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 0.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["遮阳制品", 40.0], ["休闲家具", 5.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 83.1, "ret_prev2_year": 11.3, "ret_ytd": -29.5, "ret_pivot": 64.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -16.6, "ret_120": -29.9, "ret_250": -32.9, "mdd_250": -44.3, "vol_250": 35.1, "pos_52w": 60.6}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 48, "hard": 32, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 189.2 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.3%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.00 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 189.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -17% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "浙江正特:PE 比行业中位高 141.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点。"]}}