{"F": {"ts_code": "001236.SZ", "name": "弘业期货", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "多元金融", "sw3": "期货", "ind": "多元金融", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220805", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.15, "pe_ttm": 256.6071, "pb": 4.38, "dv_ttm": 0.0491, "total_mv": 821338.907, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [15.6, 16.4, 15.3, 19.4, 28.8, 2.9], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.1, 0.1, 0.3, 0.0], "roe_series": [4.1, 4.8, 0.7, 0.4, 1.6, 0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 16.0, "fcf_ttm": 15.9, "fcf_yield": 19.4, "ocf_yield": 19.5, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.1, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.38, "capex_dep": 0.34, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 85.7, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 51.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -42.7, "np_cagr3": -31.4, "rev_yoy": 22.2, "np_yoy": 777.0, "np_vol": 137.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入", 13.0], ["期货及期权经纪业务", 13.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：期货经纪业务净收入", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.1, "ret_prev2_year": -13.8, "ret_ytd": -23.1, "ret_pivot": -20.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.5, "ret_60": 11.2, "ret_120": -18.7, "ret_250": -36.9, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 32.9, "pos_52w": 61.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 41}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["弘业期货 是多元金融。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 0.7%,PB 4.38倍,股息率 0.0%,分红率 52%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 0.4%(1/PE)与股息率 0.0% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 256.6 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 11% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「多元金融」24 家中位:PE 20.1 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 1% / 分红率 31%。", "弘业期货:PE 比行业中位高 236.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点。"]}}