{"F": {"ts_code": "001233.SZ", "name": "海安集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "轮胎轮毂", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20251125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.0, "pe_ttm": 20.3279, "pb": 1.6868, "dv_ttm": 4.5455, "total_mv": 818282.52, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.3, 31.7, 38.0, 46.6, 48.2, 44.2], "rev_series": [null, null, 15.1, 22.5, 23.0, 22.3], "np_series": [null, null, 3.5, 6.5, 6.8, 5.6], "roe_series": [18.2, 15.4, 38.7, 47.7, 33.2, 15.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.7, "np_ttm": 4.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 44.2, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 3.8, "npm_median": 25.1, "roe_median": 33.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.6, "fix_assets": 12.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.69, "capex_dep": 0.52, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 20.7, "debt_mv": 7.1, "payout": 51.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 14.0, "np_cagr3": 16.5, "rev_yoy": 3.5, "np_yoy": -46.1, "np_vol": 129.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 4.9, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 14.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 41.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.51, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["全钢巨胎销售", 33.0], ["矿用轮胎运营管理", 15.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -23.7, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.9, "ret_60": -5.8, "ret_120": -36.1, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -53.5, "vol_250": 45.6, "pos_52w": 50.8}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 63, "hard": 31, "bondness": 53}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 51%、股息率 4.5%、营收 3 年复合 14.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.2%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.2%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.52 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.3 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "海安集团:PE 比行业中位低 9.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点。"]}}