{"F": {"ts_code": "001228.SZ", "name": "永泰运", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "跨境物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220429", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.86, "pe_ttm": 30.7359, "pb": 1.8132, "dv_ttm": 1.9213, "total_mv": 310139.6956, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.9, 16.3, 17.0, 15.2, 10.5, 7.6], "rev_series": [9.5, 21.4, 30.1, 22.0, 39.0, 57.9], "np_series": [0.7, 1.7, 2.9, 1.5, 0.9, 1.1], "roe_series": [14.7, 26.7, 25.1, 8.9, 5.1, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.9, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_ttm": -4.3, "fcf_yield": -13.8, "ocf_yield": -10.0, "gm_median": 15.2, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.1, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 4.3, "pb_calc": 1.81, "capex_dep": 2.03, "interest_debt": 22.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.2, "debt_ratio": 62.4, "debt_mv": 71.7, "payout": 58.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 24.3, "np_cagr3": -28.6, "rev_yoy": 22.6, "np_yoy": -11.0, "np_vol": 67.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["供应链贸易服务", 25.0], ["跨境化工物流供应链服务", 21.0], ["道路运输服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.1, "ret_prev2_year": -34.0, "ret_ytd": 15.1, "ret_pivot": 78.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.9, "ret_60": 13.3, "ret_120": -7.3, "ret_250": 19.9, "mdd_250": -27.2, "vol_250": 38.0, "pos_52w": 86.8}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 41, "hard": 24, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 30.7 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.2%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.8%(经营现金流/市值 -10.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.2%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 2.03 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.7 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 13% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "永泰运:PE 比行业中位高 9.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点。"]}}