{"F": {"ts_code": "001226.SZ", "name": "拓山重工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械器件", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 47.42, "pe_ttm": 136.1586, "pb": 4.7168, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 354069.4914, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.5, 19.3, 16.3, 8.5, 12.7, 12.6], "rev_series": [7.5, 8.9, 7.0, 4.9, 6.0, 6.8], "np_series": [0.9, 0.9, 0.6, -0.1, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [40.1, 29.2, 10.7, -1.7, 2.8, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.1, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 12.7, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 3.2, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.3, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 4.7, "pb_calc": 4.72, "capex_dep": 4.87, "interest_debt": 5.6, "debt_ebitda": 8.6, "debt_ratio": 50.9, "debt_mv": 15.8, "payout": 148.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -1.3, "np_cagr3": -29.6, "rev_yoy": 40.2, "np_yoy": 44.2, "np_vol": 128.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["工程机械零部件", 44.0], ["废料", 3.0], ["石化管件产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.0, "ret_prev2_year": -23.4, "ret_ytd": 7.3, "ret_pivot": 137.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.0, "ret_60": -5.4, "ret_120": 3.9, "ret_250": 30.1, "mdd_250": -32.3, "vol_250": 48.6, "pos_52w": 87.1}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 35, "hard": 45, "bondness": 70}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 136.2 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 4.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 136.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / -5% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "拓山重工:PE 比行业中位高 107.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.1个百分点。"]}}