{"F": {"ts_code": "001225.SZ", "name": "和泰机电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 47.38, "pe_ttm": 111.3228, "pb": 2.2461, "dv_ttm": 0.6585, "total_mv": 310674.4504, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.0, 46.0, 41.4, 39.3, 37.2, 34.4], "rev_series": [4.1, 5.1, 5.0, 3.9, 2.5, 2.4], "np_series": [1.1, 2.1, 2.2, 1.1, 0.6, 0.3], "roe_series": [30.9, 44.3, 34.6, 10.5, 4.0, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 39.3, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 29.5, "roe_median": 10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.2, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 1.9, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 12.1, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 67.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -21.7, "np_cagr3": -46.4, "rev_yoy": 10.8, "np_yoy": -32.2, "np_vol": 51.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["板链斗式提升机", 20.0], ["胶带斗式提升机", 11.0], ["易损配件", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 84.7, "ret_prev2_year": -15.5, "ret_ytd": -16.7, "ret_pivot": 77.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.2, "ret_60": 9.9, "ret_120": -11.7, "ret_250": 19.7, "mdd_250": -60.3, "vol_250": 62.4, "pos_52w": 54.8}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 57, "hard": 26, "bondness": 48}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 111.3 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.3%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.90 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 111.3 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 10% / -12%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "和泰机电:PE 比行业中位高 69.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点。"]}}