{"F": {"ts_code": "001221.SZ", "name": "悍高集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250730", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.65, "pe_ttm": 21.7152, "pb": 5.2163, "dv_ttm": 1.8916, "total_mv": 1586039.65, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.1, 31.1, 31.7, 34.4, 35.8, 37.2], "rev_series": [null, null, 16.2, 22.2, 28.6, 35.9], "np_series": [null, null, 2.1, 3.3, 5.3, 7.0], "roe_series": [22.6, 33.9, 26.4, 31.7, 35.9, 30.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.2, "np_ttm": 7.3, "ocf_ttm": 9.2, "fcf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 34.4, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 3.5, "npm_median": 15.0, "roe_median": 31.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.4, "fix_assets": 10.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.22, "capex_dep": 6.99, "interest_debt": 3.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 28.7, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 28.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 30.4, "np_cagr3": 50.7, "rev_yoy": 15.7, "np_yoy": 10.1, "np_vol": 63.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 18.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.5, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.86, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["基础五金", 45.0], ["收纳五金", 28.0], ["厨卫五金", 13.0], ["户外家具", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -31.1, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.6, "ret_60": -5.6, "ret_120": -38.8, "ret_250": -25.7, "mdd_250": -53.3, "vol_250": 50.2, "pos_52w": 52.1}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 60, "hard": 41, "bondness": 22}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.7 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.4%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 6.99 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.7 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -6% / -39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "悍高集团:PE 比行业中位低 6.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点。"]}}