{"F": {"ts_code": "001217.SZ", "name": "华尔泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.37, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.5802, "dv_ttm": 0.9643, "total_mv": 344149.19, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 32.0, 17.0, 16.0, 13.6, 6.8], "rev_series": [11.5, 18.9, 21.0, 17.9, 16.4, 20.7], "np_series": [1.7, 4.2, 2.2, 1.6, 0.9, -0.3], "roe_series": [23.2, 30.8, 11.0, 7.4, 3.9, -1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.7, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 8.2, "gm_median": 16.0, "gm_std": 8.3, "gm_stab": 0.48, "gm_chg_2022": -6.5, "npm_median": 8.8, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 64.0, "fix_assets": 20.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.58, "capex_dep": 0.84, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 31.6, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 29.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.3, "np_yoy": -49.1, "np_vol": 92.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["大宗化工原料", 42.0], ["大宗化学品", 42.0], ["化工中间体", 5.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.9, "ret_prev2_year": 0.8, "ret_ytd": -24.9, "ret_pivot": 21.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.1, "ret_60": 9.5, "ret_120": -22.1, "ret_250": -12.1, "mdd_250": -49.2, "vol_250": 42.4, "pos_52w": 62.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 29, "hard": 100, "bondness": 36}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 64%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 64%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 48%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 48%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 64%,资本开支/折旧 0.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 10% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "华尔泰:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.6个百分点。"]}}