{"F": {"ts_code": "001216.SZ", "name": "华瓷股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20211019", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.97, "pe_ttm": 21.4812, "pb": 1.7428, "dv_ttm": 2.5932, "total_mv": 437061.5751, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.9, 30.0, 32.4, 32.4, 33.2, 33.5], "rev_series": [9.2, 12.0, 13.8, 12.3, 13.4, 14.7], "np_series": [1.2, 1.4, 1.7, 1.8, 2.1, 2.2], "roe_series": [19.3, 13.6, 12.2, 11.8, 12.4, 12.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.2, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -5.1, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 32.4, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 14.6, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.1, "fix_assets": 10.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 8.69, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 18.0, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 44.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": 8.9, "rev_yoy": -20.8, "np_yoy": -14.2, "np_vol": 6.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["色釉陶瓷", 45.0], ["颜料", 2.0], ["釉下五彩", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.8, "ret_prev2_year": -0.3, "ret_ytd": -10.5, "ret_pivot": 38.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.5, "ret_60": -4.0, "ret_120": -25.6, "ret_250": 4.2, "mdd_250": -41.3, "vol_250": 51.8, "pos_52w": 67.2}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 57, "hard": 53, "bondness": 49}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 11 亿,占总资产 33%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -5.1%,股息率 2.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 77%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 33%)和定价权(毛利率 32.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.1%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 8.69 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.5 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -4% / -26%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "华瓷股份:PE 比行业中位低 6.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点。"]}}