{"F": {"ts_code": "001215.SZ", "name": "千味央厨", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "预加工食品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210906", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.65, "pe_ttm": 49.8452, "pb": 1.5946, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 297796.626, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.7, 22.4, 23.4, 23.7, 23.7, 22.7], "rev_series": [9.4, 12.7, 14.9, 19.0, 18.7, 19.0], "np_series": [0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 1.3, 0.8, 0.6], "roe_series": [15.5, 11.5, 10.1, 11.8, 5.5, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.6, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 23.4, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.3, "fix_assets": 13.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.59, "capex_dep": 2.36, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 22.0, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": 12.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 8.5, "np_cagr3": -14.6, "rev_yoy": 18.2, "np_yoy": -10.7, "np_vol": 26.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 23, "fwd_pe": 37.2, "fwd_pe2": 30.5, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["主食类", 18.0], ["烘焙类", 11.0], ["烘焙甜品类", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.5, "ret_prev2_year": -41.7, "ret_ytd": -20.4, "ret_pivot": 32.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.6, "ret_60": -26.6, "ret_120": -13.6, "ret_250": -0.0, "mdd_250": -42.1, "vol_250": 52.9, "pos_52w": 62.5}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 55, "hard": 93, "bondness": 17}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 49.8 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%、固定资产占比 58%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%,稳定度 98%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 2.36 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -27% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "千味央厨:PE 比行业中位高 20.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 29.8个百分点。"]}}