{"F": {"ts_code": "001213.SZ", "name": "中铁特货", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "铁路运输", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210908", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.54, "pe_ttm": 54.5517, "pb": 0.8197, "dv_ttm": 1.5424, "total_mv": 1573333.3176, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.4, 6.6, 6.4, 8.3, 8.5, 6.6], "rev_series": [84.6, 88.4, 94.7, 106.8, 112.7, 119.6], "np_series": [3.5, 3.9, 4.2, 6.3, 6.7, 4.2], "roe_series": [2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 3.4, 3.5, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 115.3, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 12.9, "fcf_ttm": -12.7, "fcf_yield": -8.1, "ocf_yield": 8.2, "gm_median": 6.6, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 2.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.6, "fix_assets": 110.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.82, "capex_dep": 3.93, "interest_debt": 5.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 10.7, "debt_mv": 3.5, "payout": 41.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.1, "np_cagr3": 0.7, "rev_yoy": -8.0, "np_yoy": -40.2, "np_vol": 27.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["汽车物流业务", 29.0], ["商品汽车物流", 29.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.0, "ret_prev2_year": 0.7, "ret_ytd": -11.8, "ret_pivot": -1.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": -0.2, "ret_120": -17.4, "ret_250": -17.2, "mdd_250": -21.8, "vol_250": 16.0, "pos_52w": 82.6}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 40, "hard": 83, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 54.6 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 6.6%、固定资产占比 52%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.6%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.1%(经营现金流/市值 8.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 3.93 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.6 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -22%,年化波动 16%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -0% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "中铁特货:PE 比行业中位高 39.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 25.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.6个百分点。"]}}