{"F": {"ts_code": "001212.SZ", "name": "中旗新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "其他建材", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210823", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.51, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5179, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 673415.6196, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.8, 29.4, 22.8, 19.9, 16.9, 10.8], "rev_series": [5.5, 7.2, 6.6, 6.9, 5.3, 4.2], "np_series": [1.4, 1.4, 0.9, 0.8, 0.3, -0.3], "roe_series": [24.0, 14.4, 6.2, 5.2, 1.8, -1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 19.9, "gm_std": 6.2, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": -15.0, "npm_median": 11.4, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.7, "fix_assets": 7.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.52, "capex_dep": 0.64, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 13.9, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -14.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -17.2, "np_yoy": -185.8, "np_vol": 74.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["板材", 67.0], ["台面类", 14.0], ["台面", 14.0], ["石英砂/粉", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 204.9, "ret_prev2_year": -1.0, "ret_ytd": -33.9, "ret_pivot": 155.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.1, "ret_60": -29.9, "ret_120": -38.2, "ret_250": -45.5, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 50.7, "pos_52w": 54.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 56, "bondness": 42}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 35%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.9%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.9%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 0.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -30% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "中旗新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.9个百分点。"]}}